Planning Through Permanent Uncertainty: How Finance Leaders Forecast, Hold Cash and Keep Board Confidence

Scrubbed

Scrubbed

Planning Through Permanent Uncertainty: How Finance Leaders Forecast, Hold Cash and Keep Board Confidence

At A Glance

Planning Through Permanent Uncertainty was the third panel at The Future Is Fractional 2026, hosted by Scrubbed on September 24, 2026. Scrubbed Chief Client Officer Darwin Pangilinan moderated a conversation with Satoshi Steimetz, CFO of Playworks; Naita Saechao Chialvo, a fractional CFO working with nonprofits, social enterprises and startups; and Danielle Morris, founder and chief strategist of a firm that guides entrepreneurial families through succession planning and governance. The panel covered rolling forecasts, leading indicators, scenario planning for global teams and policy shocks, cash reserves, and keeping a board’s confidence when assumptions shift. The short version: validate the inputs behind your forecast, hold enough cash to absorb surprises, and tell your board early.

For many finance teams, uncertainty is no longer an exception to plan around. It’s the condition they plan in. Funding shifts, tariff and tax policy changes, and regional shocks can all land inside a single budget cycle.


Session 3 of The Future Is Fractional 2026, a virtual conference hosted by finance and accounting advisory firm Scrubbed on September 24, 2026, moderated by Scrubbed Chief Client Officer Darwin Pangilinan, asked three finance and governance leaders how they built that reality into forecasting, cash management and board reporting.

Key Takeaways:
  • A late miss hurts more than a big one. Satoshi Steimetz, CFO of the nonprofit Playworks, said the size of a budget miss mattered less than how late it surfaced.
  • Run forecasts on three clocks. Review revenue and pipeline weekly, refresh the full forecast monthly and update a five-year projection with scenarios quarterly..
  • Validate the inputs. Scheduling a rolling forecast is easy; pressure-testing what feeds it is the hard part.
  • Pair lagging financials with leading indicators. Financial statements show where you are, not where you’re going.
  • Rehearse scenarios before you need them. Organizations that pivot quickly built and practiced their scenarios in advance, with the people who would carry them out.
  • Hold cash, and tell the board early. Six months of operating cash lets Playworks absorb shocks, and “confidence is not built on being right, it’s built on being early.

What is financial planning under uncertainty? It’s planning that assumes conditions will change inside the budget year. Based on this panel, that means frequent forecast cycles with validated inputs, leading indicators alongside financial statements, scenarios prepared before they’re needed, cash reserves to absorb shocks, and board updates that arrive early enough to act on.


Meet the Panel

  • Darwin Pangilinan (moderator): Chief Client Officer, Scrubbed. 
  • Satoshi Steimetz: CFO, Playworks, a national nonprofit that brings play and recess to about 2,000 schools. His career includes Lucasfilm, AT&T and KPMG. 
  • Naita Saechao Chialvo: Fractional CFOO and Consultant working across nonprofits, social enterprises and startups, with a background at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the d.school. 
  • Danielle Morris: Founder and Chief Strategist, Triconal, Inc., guiding entrepreneurial families through succession and governance, and advising on cross-border transactions and international tax.  

Rolling forecasts: from a monthly forecast to three clock


Steimetz opened with a miss. Playworks already ran a monthly profit-and-loss (P&L) and cash forecast, yet it missed its budget, and the miss surfaced in the last quarter of the fiscal year, leaving no time to react. “The size of the miss mattered less than how late it surfaced.”

The root cause was an input: the training sales pipeline was reviewed only quarterly and never pressure-tested. Here’s how the process changed:


Before the missNow
Revenue and PipelinePipeline values reviewed quarterly, not pressure-testedReviewed weekly in a working session, not a reporting session
Full ForecastMonthly P&L and cash forecastRefreshed monthly in Adaptive, on top of Sage Intacct actuals, with Salesforce pipeline feeding in
Long-term viewNot describedFive-year projection with scenarios, refreshed quarterly

Scheduling the forecast is the easy part. The hard parts are validating the inputs and making clear that forecasts lead to action, so the people preparing them have a stake in getting them right.

Shifting a Team from Static to Fluid Planning

Saechao Chialvo drew on design thinking and her work in the social innovation sector. In her view, two mindsets matter most:

  • Continuous improvement. Helping leaders “unlearn, relearn, rethink, and then relearn again.”
  • Comfort with ambiguity. Financials can feel set in stone, so she guides whole organizations through synthesizing data, generating insights and working scenario by scenario.

Leading vs. Lagging indicators

Morris pointed out that financial statements are lagging indicators. They show where you are, not where you’re going. Finance teams need models built on predictive indicators, the “windshield” rather than the rearview mirror. 


Lagging IndicatorsLeading (Predictive) Indicators
What they tell youWhere the organization is nowWhere it’s likely headed
Examples from the panelFinancial statements; for an airline, today’s on-time arrival as a performance numberFor a city, building permits signaling future investment; for an airline, on-time arrival as a predictor of tomorrow’s ticket sales
What they requireAccurate reportingA theory of cause and effect, time, and curiosity across finance, operations, human capital and the board

Scenario Planning for Global Teams and Policy Risk

Act on unclear information. Morris told the story of a school principal during recent floods in Nepal who heard inconclusive rumors of a wall of water and moved 900 students to high ground before it destroyed the school. Finance, she argued, needs the same capacity: model what-if scenarios and know your tolerances before the answer is certain.

Co-design the framework. Saechao Chialvo emphasized “process over the product.” At READ Global, a nonprofit that builds community library and resource centers in South Asia,where she was present for the 2015 Nepal earthquakes and later navigated COVID, the team built its disaster framework with staff from all four country offices, working through each country’s likely disasters together. Tying the framework to the financials helped the organization raise support and persuade donors to loosen restrictions on how their grants could be spent, restrictions that could have blocked a response. The team built a separate framework for growth decisions and revisits it each year.

Model policy shocks. Morris noted that tax policy usually moves slowly, but not always. She recalled the 2017 U.S. tax overhaul that changed international tax almost overnight, leaving advisors roughly eight days to respond. For cross-border operations, she advised modeling scenarios, tracking international tax rules from the OECD and local changes, and considering ownership structures that add treaty protections in riskier countries. During the Arab Spring, she noted, Egyptian businesses with foreign parent companies benefited from those treaties.

Fund the overhead that makes pivots possible. Organizations that pivot quickly, Morris said, invested in that capacity beforehand. She compared it to military war games: rehearse the scenarios so institutional memory exists when you need it. In a crisis, she said, protect people first, then property and money.

Moving fast because the Homework was done

Steimetz described a spring when three pressures converged on Playworks: uncertain federal education funding, cuts to the Medicaid reimbursement school districts receive for student health services, which squeezed district budgets. . Building its fiscal 2027 budget, the team concluded “you just can’t simply budget your way through this uncertainty.”

Within roughly one quarter it made three moves:
  1. Walked away from a large federal service program that the math said wasn’t paying off.
  2. Eliminated a management layer.
  3. Consolidated smaller regions.

Earlier work, including organizational surveys and contribution margin analysis, had already pointed the way. The macro pressure “just accelerated our decisions to act on them.”

Cash reserves: How much buffer is enough?

Steimetz’s most important lever is cash. Playworks requires enough cash to cover six months of future operating expenses, a policy the board has embraced. He was clear that the right number varies by organization. What matters is having enough to absorb bad news and seize opportunities. “If you’re living check-to-check, you can’t do any of those things.”

Building a finance team that can expand and contract

Core plus flex. Since people are usually the largest cost, Saechao Chialvo favors a core internal finance team, whatever its size, plus the ability to flex up and down with outside support. Deep expertise for mergers or scaling is often missing internally, and in donor-funded organizations expansion work is rarely funded. She said Scrubbed has been a consistent partner in helping her organizations flex.

Build redundancy into leadership. Morris pointed to the Marine Corps, where people have done the role beneath them before they move up. Teaching the next person the next step prepares an organization for the resignations, departures and illnesses every organization faces. Leaders should also reward decisions made under uncertainty, even imprecise ones.

KPIs for an uncertain year
  • Saechao Chialvo: Help leaders trust their own instincts about which KPIs matter. With one organization, she built an impact measure around “hearts” (the depth of change in each person served) rather than lives reached, mapped back to financial markers.
  • Steimetz: Six months of cash, the organization-wide mantra and the leading indicator for this year and beyond.
  • Morris: Pair performance indicators with predictive ones.

Board Communication: Early, clear and decision-ready
  • Translate the statements. Morris said most boards glaze over financial statements. She used AI to convert an indirect cash flow statement into the direct method, showing cash from customers and payments to vendors, which non-finance leaders grasp immediately.
  • Be early. Steimetz said boards expect assumptions to change and lose confidence only when they learn of a change too late to act. “Confidence is not built on being right, it’s built on being early with the information.”
  • Communicate by design. Saechao Chialvo stressed shared values and a deliberate communication format: give stakeholders the information they need, in a form they trust, to answer the questions they have right now.

  • Pangilinan’s summary: the thread through every answer was trust.

One habit for the next budget cycle
  • Steimetz: Stop budgeting toward break-even. It’s fine for a nonprofit to run a modest surplus that builds reserves.
  • Saechao Chialvo: Build scenarios, including wild ones and ones that pull away from the original mission.
  • Morris: Run two budgets, the hoped-for sales budget and a cash-protective one, and ask what you’d need to do today to reach 2X or survive at half your revenue. Finance is often the only team thinking about it.

On tools, Saechao Chialvo suggested starting from existing templates or accounting software, noting AI still needs human input to get a budget right. Steimetz said that across 16 regions and 12 departments, spreadsheets are no longer an option.

This session is part of TFIF 2026.  To see how planning connects to talent, AI and team design, read, read Own the Core, Access the Rest: What The Future is Fractional (TFIF) 2026 Revealed About How Finance Teams Are Being Rebuilt what finance leaders are rethinking about talent, AI and team structure.

Stop finding out about budget misses in the fourth quarter.

Early warnings depend on forecasts someone updates every week. This is the work our FP&A and fractional CFO professionals take responsibility for. We run rolling forecasts, track cash and build the scenarios your board needs, so leadership hears about changes in time to act on them.

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At The Future Is Fractional 2026, a virtual conference hosted by finance and accounting advisory firm Scrubbed on September 24, 2026, Session 4 split into three industry breakouts running at the same time: real estate, nonprofit and technology. In the nonprofit track, Scrubbed Director of Business Development Laurence Ruelo asked veteran CFO Costa John how nonprofits can build a finance function that is resilient, useful to leadership and scalable when resources are already stretched. Key Takeaways: Resilience rests on three legs: liquidity, flexibility and the cash cycle. Timesheets and integration drive restricted fund tracking. Programs are delivered by people, so staff time is what releases restricted funds. When funding is cut, act early and in phases. The first cost reductions are the cheapest ones. Don't hire strategy to fix bookkeeping. Get the books closing cleanly before bringing in a fractional CFO, or the CFO gets pulled back into reconciliations. 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Costa John : CEO CFO Assignments, with decades of CFO experience across nonprofit and for-profit organizations, including as CFO of Sapiens North America.  The Three Pillars of Nonprofit Financial Resilience John frames resilience as a three-legged stool: Liquidity: The level of unrestricted funds the organization can draw on. Flexibility : The cushion to absorb a delayed grant or a slow proposal. The board usually sets it with the CFO as a target number of months of cash operating expenses. The cash cycle: How many days the organization must cover rent, salaries, travel and office costs before funding arrives. Together, they give the organization a stable footing. John acknowledged it’s hard for small nonprofits, but said building toward it should be a priority. How to Track Restricted Funds without the Spreadsheet Wrestling Match Restricted funds are grants or donations that can be spent only on a specific purpose or program. Start with timesheets. Nonprofit programs are delivered by people, so releasing restricted funds and matching expenses to grants comes down to how staff time is spent. “If you cannot have a good on-hand grip of where and how your program people are delivering against the mission, you’re already on a slippery slope." Integrate the systems. The more the organization’s systems connect end to end, the less restricted revenue tracking becomes “a wrestling match between confusing and sometimes broken spreadsheets.” Affordable, easier-to-integrate software has made that more realistic than it used to be. Contingency planning when a major funder pulls out Stay close to funders. Organizations with strong funder relationships can often see cuts coming, whether funders planned them or are reacting to their own budget pressures. Have the outline of a plan ready. John described a phased response, from least to most disruptive: Delay contractors and capital spending not required this year. Delay replacements when people resign. Delay salary increases. Delay benefits such as 401(k) matches. Only if those steps don’t buy enough time, consider reductions in force. Act early. Once you know funding is going away, move. “Your first cost reduction steps are ironically your cheapest ones.” Hesitating can make the eventual response more painful and more expensive. Board Reporting: Forward-looking Information, Not just data “Data is not the same as information,” John said. Boards can drown in numbers. He recommended spending little time on historical statements beyond a status update. “It’s hard asking a board to govern an organization looking in the rearview mirror.” Include in Board Updates What It Means The forward look The outlook for the coming period The impact If this happens, here's what it means financially Decisions,plural A range of choices and their impacts, not a single option to approve or reject Non-financial metrics, with the CFO at the table John pushed back on the idea that non-financial metrics are outside the CFO’s lane. Measures like schools reached, children served or outcomes achieved all have financial drivers underneath, and the CFO can help program leaders see the dollar value of their impact. He sees a missed opportunity with funders: payback . In one illustration, a program costing about $72,000 per school produces an estimated $112,000 per school in lifetime health and education benefits. Framed that way, funders hear two things: the program pays for itself, and more money would do more good. Aligning boards on cash reserves Reserves aren’t shareholders’ equity. John warned that board members without a finance background shouldn't read nonprofit reserves that way. Restricted reserves reported under GAAP are, in economic substance, obligations to deliver future programs, and the cash to deliver them needs to be available. Deficits change the math. With $10 million in grant revenue and $12 million in expenses, every dollar of programming costs $1.20. Delivering more of it without a plan to close the gap can dig the hole deeper, so healthy-looking reserves can offer “a comfort that turns out to be razor thin.” Boards don’t need the calculations, he said, but they should know to ask. Scaling Finance Capacity: Compliance vs. Value-added work Executive directors already juggle fundraising, programs, people and operations. John divides finance into two parts, with different ways to resource each: Non-negotiable: compliance and reporting Value-added: strategy and planning What it covers The Form 990, the audit, paying vendors, payroll Forecasting, budgeting, support at the fundraising and budget tables The risk It “can become a self-consuming monster” without integration and automation It gets crowded out if the CFO is pulled into bookkeeping How John would resource it Outsource it, or at minimum keep it separate from the CFO role A part-time or fractional CFO, kept out of the bookkeeping weeds Don’t hire strategy to fix bookkeeping. Bringing in a fractional CFO for strategic work while the books still don’t close cleanly means the CFO gets dragged back into reconciliations, “the most expensive way to solve the wrong problem.” Messy reconciliations also pull program leaders away from the mission. Start with the lightest system that works . John warned against buying the most sophisticated accounting system too early. A lightweight option such as QuickBooks with nonprofit modules usually serves growing organizations better, while complex systems can “grind the process to a halt.” Ruelo agreed, noting organizations that implement complex systems, don’t get the information they need and end up returning to simpler tools. Non-financial metrics, with the CFO at the table A dedicated CFO role, even a part-time or fractional one, onshore or offshore, kept out of the bookkeeping weeds . Relationship-driven roles such as the grant accountant, who knows program leaders, funders and nuances that may not translate if outsourced. The metric every Nonprofit leader should watch: Operating cash flow “Reserves and profits are a matter of opinion. Cash is a matter of fact.” A balance sheet can look healthy while cash is tied up in grants not yet funded, and “you cannot make payroll with grant certificates or invoices.” John recommended practicing short-horizon cash forecasting, starting at 30 and 60 days, until it becomes muscle memory, especially as the funding environment for nonprofits shifts. One Change to the Board packet: An Unrestricted Cash Schedule What to cut: Liability-side schedules, such as an accounts payable aging report showing how long vendors have waited to be paid. John called that too operational to help a board make a decision. What to add: a schedule showing how many days the organization can run on unrestricted cash. Start with unrestricted reserves. Subtract amounts already committed. Divide by daily cash expenses. The board then knows, at every meeting, how many days the organization can operate: 111 days, say, or 192. It's easy to focus on and easy to understand. Ruelo’s summary of the conversation:   Resilience starts with visibility, good reporting translates information into decisions, and finance capacity is about access to the right expertise at the right time, whether internal, fractional, outsourced or a mix. This session is part of The Future is Fractional 2026. For the themes that ran across every industry, read Own the Core, Access the Rest: What The Future is Fractional (TFIF) 2026 Revealed About How Finance Teams Are Being Rebuilt   what finance leaders are rethinking about talent, AI and team structure.

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