At A Glance
Planning Through Permanent Uncertainty was the third panel at The Future Is Fractional 2026, hosted by Scrubbed on September 24, 2026. Scrubbed Chief Client Officer Darwin Pangilinan moderated a conversation with Satoshi Steimetz, CFO of Playworks; Naita Saechao Chialvo, a fractional CFO working with nonprofits, social enterprises and startups; and Danielle Morris, founder and chief strategist of a firm that guides entrepreneurial families through succession planning and governance. The panel covered rolling forecasts, leading indicators, scenario planning for global teams and policy shocks, cash reserves, and keeping a board’s confidence when assumptions shift. The short version: validate the inputs behind your forecast, hold enough cash to absorb surprises, and tell your board early.
For many finance teams, uncertainty is no longer an exception to plan around. It’s the condition they plan in. Funding shifts, tariff and tax policy changes, and regional shocks can all land inside a single budget cycle.
Session 3 of The Future Is Fractional 2026, a virtual conference hosted by finance and accounting advisory firm Scrubbed on September 24, 2026, moderated by Scrubbed Chief Client Officer Darwin Pangilinan, asked three finance and governance leaders how they built that reality into forecasting, cash management and board reporting.
Key Takeaways:
- A late miss hurts more than a big one. Satoshi Steimetz, CFO of the nonprofit Playworks, said the size of a budget miss mattered less than how late it surfaced.
- Run forecasts on three clocks. Review revenue and pipeline weekly, refresh the full forecast monthly and update a five-year projection with scenarios quarterly..
- Validate the inputs. Scheduling a rolling forecast is easy; pressure-testing what feeds it is the hard part.
- Pair lagging financials with leading indicators. Financial statements show where you are, not where you’re going.
- Rehearse scenarios before you need them. Organizations that pivot quickly built and practiced their scenarios in advance, with the people who would carry them out.
- Hold cash, and tell the board early. Six months of operating cash lets Playworks absorb shocks, and “confidence is not built on being right, it’s built on being early.
What is financial planning under uncertainty? It’s planning that assumes conditions will change inside the budget year. Based on this panel, that means frequent forecast cycles with validated inputs, leading indicators alongside financial statements, scenarios prepared before they’re needed, cash reserves to absorb shocks, and board updates that arrive early enough to act on.
Meet the Panel
- Darwin Pangilinan (moderator): Chief Client Officer, Scrubbed.
- Satoshi Steimetz: CFO, Playworks, a national nonprofit that brings play and recess to about 2,000 schools. His career includes Lucasfilm, AT&T and KPMG.
- Naita Saechao Chialvo: Fractional CFOO and Consultant working across nonprofits, social enterprises and startups, with a background at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the d.school.
- Danielle Morris: Founder and Chief Strategist, Triconal, Inc., guiding entrepreneurial families through succession and governance, and advising on cross-border transactions and international tax.
Rolling forecasts: from a monthly forecast to three clock
Steimetz opened with a miss. Playworks already ran a monthly profit-and-loss (P&L) and cash forecast, yet it missed its budget, and the miss surfaced in the last quarter of the fiscal year, leaving no time to react. “The size of the miss mattered less than how late it surfaced.”
The root cause was an input: the training sales pipeline was reviewed only quarterly and never pressure-tested. Here’s how the process changed:
| Before the miss | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue and Pipeline | Pipeline values reviewed quarterly, not pressure-tested | Reviewed weekly in a working session, not a reporting session |
| Full Forecast | Monthly P&L and cash forecast | Refreshed monthly in Adaptive, on top of Sage Intacct actuals, with Salesforce pipeline feeding in |
| Long-term view | Not described | Five-year projection with scenarios, refreshed quarterly |
Scheduling the forecast is the easy part. The hard parts are validating the inputs and making clear that forecasts lead to action, so the people preparing them have a stake in getting them right.
Shifting a Team from Static to Fluid Planning
Saechao Chialvo drew on design thinking and her work in the social innovation sector. In her view, two mindsets matter most:- Continuous improvement. Helping leaders “unlearn, relearn, rethink, and then relearn again.”
- Comfort with ambiguity. Financials can feel set in stone, so she guides whole organizations through synthesizing data, generating insights and working scenario by scenario.
Leading vs. Lagging indicators
Morris pointed out that financial statements are lagging indicators. They show where you are, not where you’re going. Finance teams need models built on predictive indicators, the “windshield” rather than the rearview mirror.
Lagging Indicators Leading (Predictive) Indicators What they tell you Where the organization is now Where it’s likely headed Examples from the panel Financial statements; for an airline, today’s on-time arrival as a performance number For a city, building permits signaling future investment; for an airline, on-time arrival as a predictor of tomorrow’s ticket sales What they require Accurate reporting A theory of cause and effect, time, and curiosity across finance, operations, human capital and the board
Scenario Planning for Global Teams and Policy Risk
Act on unclear information. Morris told the story of a school principal during recent floods in Nepal who heard inconclusive rumors of a wall of water and moved 900 students to high ground before it destroyed the school. Finance, she argued, needs the same capacity: model what-if scenarios and know your tolerances before the answer is certain.| Lagging Indicators | Leading (Predictive) Indicators | |
|---|---|---|
| What they tell you | Where the organization is now | Where it’s likely headed |
| Examples from the panel | Financial statements; for an airline, today’s on-time arrival as a performance number | For a city, building permits signaling future investment; for an airline, on-time arrival as a predictor of tomorrow’s ticket sales |
| What they require | Accurate reporting | A theory of cause and effect, time, and curiosity across finance, operations, human capital and the board |
Co-design the framework. Saechao Chialvo emphasized “process over the product.” At READ Global, a nonprofit that builds community library and resource centers in South Asia,where she was present for the 2015 Nepal earthquakes and later navigated COVID, the team built its disaster framework with staff from all four country offices, working through each country’s likely disasters together. Tying the framework to the financials helped the organization raise support and persuade donors to loosen restrictions on how their grants could be spent, restrictions that could have blocked a response. The team built a separate framework for growth decisions and revisits it each year.
Model policy shocks. Morris noted that tax policy usually moves slowly, but not always. She recalled the 2017 U.S. tax overhaul that changed international tax almost overnight, leaving advisors roughly eight days to respond. For cross-border operations, she advised modeling scenarios, tracking international tax rules from the OECD and local changes, and considering ownership structures that add treaty protections in riskier countries. During the Arab Spring, she noted, Egyptian businesses with foreign parent companies benefited from those treaties.
Fund the overhead that makes pivots possible. Organizations that pivot quickly, Morris said, invested in that capacity beforehand. She compared it to military war games: rehearse the scenarios so institutional memory exists when you need it. In a crisis, she said, protect people first, then property and money.
Moving fast because the Homework was done
Steimetz described a spring when three pressures converged on Playworks: uncertain federal education funding, cuts to the Medicaid reimbursement school districts receive for student health services, which squeezed district budgets. . Building its fiscal 2027 budget, the team concluded “you just can’t simply budget your way through this uncertainty.”Within roughly one quarter it made three moves:
- Walked away from a large federal service program that the math said wasn’t paying off.
- Eliminated a management layer.
- Consolidated smaller regions.
Cash reserves: How much buffer is enough?
Steimetz’s most important lever is cash. Playworks requires enough cash to cover six months of future operating expenses, a policy the board has embraced. He was clear that the right number varies by organization. What matters is having enough to absorb bad news and seize opportunities. “If you’re living check-to-check, you can’t do any of those things.”
Building a finance team that can expand and contract
Core plus flex. Since people are usually the largest cost, Saechao Chialvo favors a core internal finance team, whatever its size, plus the ability to flex up and down with outside support. Deep expertise for mergers or scaling is often missing internally, and in donor-funded organizations expansion work is rarely funded. She said Scrubbed has been a consistent partner in helping her organizations flex.
Build redundancy into leadership. Morris pointed to the Marine Corps, where people have done the role beneath them before they move up. Teaching the next person the next step prepares an organization for the resignations, departures and illnesses every organization faces. Leaders should also reward decisions made under uncertainty, even imprecise ones.
KPIs for an uncertain year
- Saechao Chialvo: Help leaders trust their own instincts about which KPIs matter. With one organization, she built an impact measure around “hearts” (the depth of change in each person served) rather than lives reached, mapped back to financial markers.
- Steimetz: Six months of cash, the organization-wide mantra and the leading indicator for this year and beyond.
- Morris: Pair performance indicators with predictive ones.
- Translate the statements. Morris said most boards glaze over financial statements. She used AI to convert an indirect cash flow statement into the direct method, showing cash from customers and payments to vendors, which non-finance leaders grasp immediately.
- Be early. Steimetz said boards expect assumptions to change and lose confidence only when they learn of a change too late to act. “Confidence is not built on being right, it’s built on being early with the information.”
- Communicate by design. Saechao Chialvo stressed shared values and a deliberate communication format: give stakeholders the information they need, in a form they trust, to answer the questions they have right now.
- Pangilinan’s summary: the thread through every answer was trust.
One habit for the next budget cycle
- Steimetz: Stop budgeting toward break-even. It’s fine for a nonprofit to run a modest surplus that builds reserves.
- Saechao Chialvo: Build scenarios, including wild ones and ones that pull away from the original mission.
- Morris: Run two budgets, the hoped-for sales budget and a cash-protective one, and ask what you’d need to do today to reach 2X or survive at half your revenue. Finance is often the only team thinking about it.
On tools, Saechao Chialvo suggested starting from existing templates or accounting software, noting AI still needs human input to get a budget right. Steimetz said that across 16 regions and 12 departments, spreadsheets are no longer an option.
This session is part of TFIF 2026. To see how planning connects to talent, AI and team design, read, read Own the Core, Access the Rest: What The Future is Fractional (TFIF) 2026 Revealed About How Finance Teams Are Being Rebuilt what finance leaders are rethinking about talent, AI and team structure.





